A Word by CRC
Our opinion on the “fog of information”:
While in the USA there are two camps…one believing that the virus is part of a normal cycle and will not be very bad – and the cure is more damage than the disease… and another camp is scared with apprehension…
It is our opinion to better be "safe than sorry".
Toward the end my grim projection actually coincides with the beginning of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s prediction (he is way light)…He is reality based…“walking a political tightrope…”
First understand what numbers mean…
I prefer to have been wrong and to prepare and find out this virus peters out when it has hit a small percentage of the population….In that event we loose some time and money but things will return to normal albeit with some damage… to me that is a best case scenario and my wish.
However…We do not know. And we do not have good data. I will err on the side of caution and follow the fact that China – a successful country - took extraordinarily drastic steps…
We also know that Germany has taken this very seriously by middle of February and yet they have not been able to get under a 10% compound growth rate for infections…
We know that Germany is projecting to have their healthcare system overwhelmed… and they have a much larger system than we have here.
So I suggest and act out my understanding of what “compound daily growth rate numbers“ suggest…. This pandemic likely will get out of hand sooner than later. And it will not peak in two weeks as the president suggests….
I will try to paint a mathematical picture.
In the past weeks I was projecting that Virginia would grow at 20% per day… If a number grows at 20% compounded per day then it actually multiplies by 3.57 every week.
In fact we seem to grow at 26 – 28%. We have not really implemented social distancing – as compared with Europe which is ahead of us and struggling….
So here are the numbers that result from this which I posed on March 21 on my IG page at a low 20% daily compounding rate:
Both numbers will decrease from then on as the communities run out of people….
Two important factors:
1; We as a nation have not been testing… therefore we do not have a good baseline data.
2; We clearly seem to be growing at a different higher rate.
Now if we take a place like Germany or Czech Republic where they have been testing and implementing social distancing the first week in March,
This is the picture that emerges form actual Numbers:
In Italy – which is truly shut down and which is a situation that can not be maintained indefinitely we are now growing the infected population at around 8%. If we want to really win we must test and separate the infected immediately… for that we must prepare…
I will project what I now believe will be the Virginia trend line putting in some guessed variables based on what I have seen others do:
it peters of and in a few months we get another wave…. And likely a third…
If this happens we will loose 15 + % of those who got infected in this wave… because the healthcare system is out….
I hope I am wrong but that is what I think… - I may be off by a week – I may be off at what weekly level it peters out but the fact is that there are weeks with such big increases that we will be completely off guard.
My districts are about 1/25th of the state… so we are 1/25th of those numbers….
(greater Lynchburg and Thomas Jefferson health district at 250k each.)
This is math… this is why this is so dangerous… May will be very bad and the die is cast 10 days before the number shows up and the dead materialize weeks after the infections numbers shows up….
This is not worth taking a chance on……
I do not like making this prediction but it is numbers based – and it may well be light…. The main thing I want to show is how the numbers go crazy…. When growing exponentially….
The hope and the spin that:
The possibility of large percentages of the population already having “been infected” without effect, as the Oxford study says, is dispelled with the tests in VO Italy and in Iceland.
Now that said in the following interview Dr. Anthony Fauci explains how to deal with this and he makes it very clear: Test all the people who need it in real time and separate them…
This is what CRC is all about.
CRC is the next logical step once the testing is being handled correctly.
Fauci: says several hundred thousand deaths… but he is light.
He really shows how we do not know and concedes a different message than the president.
I believe he knows well but has to walk a tightrope of an acceptable message….
Pass it on….